http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books?hl=en
rec.arts.books@googlegroups.com
Today's topics:
* Mandelbrot on efficient markets - 3 messages, 3 authors
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/496fa77e4c853268?hl=en
* نيك خلفي سريع وممتع - 1 messages, 1 author
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/cce1ce8c4249d92a?hl=en
* the lost symbol - 1 messages, 1 author
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/26509ed7711d8945?hl=en
* Superiority Complex - Authors' Tone - 1 messages, 1 author
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/2fcef07e1cab3641?hl=en
* Why Has Islam Become the Darling of the Left? - 4 messages, 3 authors
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/941eeeb13247481d?hl=en
==============================================================================
TOPIC: Mandelbrot on efficient markets
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/496fa77e4c853268?hl=en
==============================================================================
== 1 of 3 ==
Date: Fri, Oct 23 2009 10:03 pm
From: Arindam Banerjee
On Oct 24, 2:07 am, Pubkeybreaker <pubkeybrea...@aol.com> wrote:
> On Oct 1, 1:45 pm, Marko Amnell <marko.amn...@kolumbus.fi> wrote:
>
> > See video at FT.com:
>
> >http://tinyurl.com/yawv9ol
>
> > "In a fascinating in-depth interview with
> > John Authers, investment editor, 85-year old
> > mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot discusses
> > his now 40-year old groundbreaking critique
> > of the "efficient markets" hypothesis
>
> The "efficient market" hypothesis is horseshit.
> The real markets (as opposed to the fantasy markets
> of economists, mathematicians and financial 'analysts')
> work on INSIDE INFORMATION.
>
> Anyone who believes otherwise is living in fantasy land.
To put it another way, the real markets actually work (by taking money
from the suckers, like in any horse race) is by trying hard to make
the suckers believe that it does *not* work on inside information (and
manipulation), and one way to get credibility is by sacrificing some
Madoffs from time to time.
So there is a tradeoff - markets will rise so long as people are
fooled, but at some time when they are not fooled they stop buying,
and after that depending upon some random or contrived factors they
may panic or they may keep on buying. Greed vs panic here - just as
there is the need vs capacity situation in the telecom networks.
It used to be that markets were a measure to help fund good people
start good business, but now in our Einsteinian world all these high-
minded ideals (if they ever existed) have long gone down the
drainpipes. Will anyone fund a Hydrogen Transmission Network, or the
development of the Internal Force Engine?
Arindam Banerjee
== 2 of 3 ==
Date: Sat, Oct 24 2009 2:46 pm
From: spudnik
the bulls make money, the bears make money, and
the hogs always get slaughtered; that is,
market "up" or "down" makes no difference
to the physical economy, if they are raking it all of
in the "voluntary CO2 emmisions-trading scheme;"
does it?
> start good business, but now in our Einsteinian world all
> of these high-minded ideals (if they ever existed) have
> long gone down the drainpipes. Will anyone
> fund a Hydrogen Transmission Network, or the
> development of the Internal Force Engine?
thus:
that is the penintimate waffle.
> than it, so the rest mass of a photon as a particle of aether, if a
> photon is a particle of aether, would be 'zero', as in nothing has
> less mass than the aether itself.
thus:
distant action by a bunch of British spooks, like Newton,
who wouldn't "share" with Hooke, the first head
of the Royal Society?
this is a groovy thread, although Hawking, MoU, gets it wrong
about M&M, even by the usual "null" say-so;
the speed of light depends upon the index of refraction,
even in a relative vacuum, such as air at sea-level (NB:
there is some heighth, where the air is half dihydrogen).
Davies is more-correct then Smolin:
since stringtheory subsumes most of the math
of the older stuff, it really is not controversial;
Penrose has yet, AFAIK, to address plasma physics,
which is the "9" of Universe beyond the Department
of Einsteinmania, the Musical Department.... but,
he is so brave, to take the suit to the array
of lawyers on the estate of Schroedinger's joke-cat ...
even though, as pertains USA academe, the Department may
as well be run by the Lucasian Chair-sit! (also note,
Smolin is at the "Perimeter Institute,"
supposedly named after a constant, the ratio
of the diameter of the sphere to either its circumference, or
its area.)
thus:
photon hath no restmass, precisely because
it is not a coorpuscle -- it am what it am,
"least action in least time" a la Fermat!...
the photon is a figment of Einstein's photo-electrical effect.
Descartes to Fermat
Tuesday, July 27, 1638
http://wlym.com/~animations/fermat/august08-fermat.pdf
http://wlym.com/~animations/fermat/index.html
== 3 of 3 ==
Date: Sat, Oct 24 2009 7:16 pm
From: Marko Amnell
On Oct 24, 2:15 am, Les Cargill <lcargil...@comcast.net> wrote:
> Thank you for your efforts. Makes perfect sense. Yes, I'd read
> Grantham and Martin Wolf, but didn't understand the derivation of
> this. Now I do.
There is a lot more information about Hurst at the following website:
http://www.bearcave.com/misl/misl_tech/wavelets/hurst/
I will just give two quotes, which I found interesting:
"I have had a hard time finding an intuitive definition for the term
long memory process, so I'll give my definition: a long memory process
is a process with a random component, where a past event has a
decaying effect on future events. The process has some memory of past
events, which is "forgotten" as time moves forward. For example, large
trades in a market will move the market price (e.g., a large purchase
order will tend to move the price up, a large sell order will tend to
move the price downward). This effect is referred to as market impact
(see The Market Impact Model by Nicolo Torre, BARRA Newsletter, Winter
1998). When an order has measurable market impact, the market price
does not immediately rebound to the previous price after the order is
filled. The market acts as if it has some "memory" of what took place
and the effect of the order decays over time. Similar processes allow
momentum trading to have some value."
[...]
"Looking back over the results, it can be seen that the Hurst exponent
of 1-day returns is very near 0.5, which indicates a random walk. This
corresponds with results reported in the finace literature (e.g., 1-
day returns have an approximately Gaussian normal random
distribution). As the return period gets longer, the Hurst exponent
moves toward 1.0, indicating increasing long memory character.
In his book Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets, Edgar Peters
suggests that a hurst exponent value H (0.5 < H < 1.0) shows that the
efficient market hypothesis is incorrect. Returns are not randomly
distributed, there is some underlying predictability. Is this
conclusion necessarily true?
As the return period increases, the return values reflect longer
trends in the time series (even though I have used the log return).
Perhaps the higher Hurst exponent value is actually showing the
increasing upward or downward trends. This does not, by itself, show
that the efficient market hypothesis is incorrect. Even the most
fanatic theorist at the University of Chicago will admit that there
are market trends produced by economic expansion or contraction.
Even if we accept the idea that a non-random Hurst exponent value does
damage to the efficient market hypothesis, estimation of the Hurst
exponent seems of little use when it comes to time series forecasting.
At best, the Hurst exponent tells us that there is a long memory
process. The Hurst exponent does not provide the local information
needed for forecasting. Nor can the Hurst exponent provide much of a
tool for estimating periods that are less random, since a relatively
large number of data points are needed to estimate the Hurst
exponent.
The Hurst exponent is fascinating because it relates to a several
different areas of mathematics (e.g., fractals, the Fourier transform,
autocorrelation, and wavelets, to name a few). I have to conclude that
the practical value of the Hurst exponent is less compelling. At best
the Hurst exponent provides a broad measure of whether a time series
has a long memory character or not. This has been useful in research
on computer network traffic analysis and modeling. The application of
the Hurst exponent to finance seems more tenuous."
==============================================================================
TOPIC: نيك خلفي سريع وممتع
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/cce1ce8c4249d92a?hl=en
==============================================================================
== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Sat, Oct 24 2009 6:45 am
From: ميرو
نيك خلفي سريع وممتع
http://www.6eyf.com/dow/Lsex112.htm
==============================================================================
TOPIC: the lost symbol
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/26509ed7711d8945?hl=en
==============================================================================
== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Sat, Oct 24 2009 7:30 am
From: uyedaf@webtv.net (NanSu Uyeda)
i find this tough going. not nearly as easy a read as his 2 previous
langdon books. way tooooo much technobabble, imo. but i'm keeping on.
half way thru. nansu
==============================================================================
TOPIC: Superiority Complex - Authors' Tone
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/2fcef07e1cab3641?hl=en
==============================================================================
== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Sat, Oct 24 2009 11:05 am
From: Patriot Games
On Thu, 22 Oct 2009 22:36:11 -0400, "Francis A. Miniter"
<faminiter@comcast.net> wrote:
>Patriot Games wrote:
>> On Wed, 21 Oct 2009 06:23:47 -0700 (PDT), Transition Zone
>> <mogulah@hotmail.com> wrote:
>>> Which conservative-themed book DOES'NT have a "superior" tone by its
>>> Author?
>>> (eventually SOMEBODY'S gotta ask this)
>> Liars are EXPOSED:
>Putting aside the obsessive compulsive anger spilling forth
>from your post, how does asking a question constitute a lie?
Its not my fault you're stupid.
Try again:
On Fri, 13 Mar 2009 07:48:58 -0700 (PDT), Transition Zone
<mogulah@hotmail.com> wrote:
>> >> >And Bam & Bush can both be sued by Afghan property owners in UN
>> >> >proceedings. Iraqi property owners probably can, too.
>> >> There are no such "UN proceedings." they don't exist.
>> >> No, there's no such thing.
>> >Says who ??
>> Feel free to CITE ANY so-called "UN proceedings" where individual
>> citizens
>Which one? How do they define "sue"? Even so, "individual" (singular)
>or "citizens" (plural)?
You said: "And Bam & Bush can both be sued by Afghan property owners
in UN proceedings."
You were ALLOWED 24 hours to PROVE your CLAIM or OWN the LIE.
>> I'm waiting....
>' Might as well keep waiting, too.
>> <crickets...>-
>(Enjoy the night)
Your 24 hours are GONE. You FAILED to PROVE your CLAIM, You OWN the
LIE.
YOU ARE A PROVEN LIAR.
===================================
On Sat, 21 Mar 2009 12:06:17 -0700 (PDT), Transition Zone
<mogulah@hotmail.com> wrote:
>On Mar 19, 3:17 pm, Patriot Games <Patr...@America.Com> wrote:
>> STILL WAITING for your CITE of those UN Proceedings..........
>No need, because...
Thanks for ADMITTING YOU ARE A LIAR.
Case closed.
Game over.
==============================================================================
TOPIC: Why Has Islam Become the Darling of the Left?
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/941eeeb13247481d?hl=en
==============================================================================
== 1 of 4 ==
Date: Sat, Oct 24 2009 4:38 pm
From: Just Me
Can it be so simple as this; that if they see a conservative or
libertarian holding something in contempt (like communism) the left-
knee jerk reaction is to
conclude that since nothing on the right can be right, there must be
something holy and left-like in what is being detested from the right?
Or beside just that, which must be a part of it, can it also be all
balled up with left-wing multiculturalist ideology? Of course, because
as multiculturalism is taught it is received by the propaganda
susceptible left-leaning mind with all the honor due to Great Learning
and Knowledge. And as one learns it, a strong conceit is taken to
heart and mind over it, giving the student an elitist sense of being
in the know concerning a code of esoteric thinkiing that is not given
to the mass of the great unwashed, whose minds are presumed to be
grimy with the filth of every manner of ill or uneducated prejudice.
Little would such a student know that he has just traded one prejudice
for another! And now as he looks out into the world to see people on
the right holding all of Islam in none but the most complete contempt,
he can only arrive at the conclusion that ethnocentrism and prejudice,
not knowledge must stand as the basis for such condemnation.
But this results in none but the most absurd of all paradoxes. It is
not that the Leftist has studied the Qur'an and gone in whole hog for
the doctrines, laws and teachings of Islam, not at all! For had they
done any such study they'd be in for one hell of a bad case of
doctrinal confusion over this for which they lend such passionate
liberal support. Rather, they do not engage such study because for the
most part that Leftist is an agnostic, if not a full bore atheist, who
for his own use rejects all religion as a lot of primitive
superstition unworthy of study, on top of which he or she is often
like to be a complete sexual libertine who wants nothing to do with
the morality being taught by any religion.
So it is not what Islam IS that gains the sympathy of the Left, it is
to the contrary what Islam is NOT: Islam is NOT loved by the non-
Islamic Religious and Libertarian Right. Therefore it is to be pitied
and hugged, like a tree or an endangered bug. And though this
mistreatment from the Right would be enough for those on the Left to
shower their sympathy upon the people of a religion they know nothing
about, or least of all care for in its beliefs and moral tenets, there
is somewhat more to it!
The multiculturalist morality which demands of the Liberal that he or
she should never stand in judgment of a culture not their own, CLEARLY
does not extend to the culture that IS their own. The multculturalist
left sees NO reason to extend a policy of nonjudgmentalism to
Christianity and Judaism. That would be like incest and nepotism,
viewed from the perspective of the multiculturalist agenda. Only
cultures not their own get the blank check, the Get Out of Jail Free
card. In other words, so long as it is not something or someone from
their very own Occidental culture, it must stand above judgment and
criticism. And how do they manage that in view of such atrocities as
this . . .
http://www.eruditiononline.com/01.04/zahida_story.htm
They will look at the disfigurement of that girl's face and say, "This
is the work of *fundamentalist* Islam, and it is not the practice of
moderate Muslims anywhere." As the facts come before their faces to
make a stinking mush of their multiculturalist soup what do they do?
They deny that what they see has anything to do with Islam properly so-
called. Hence, this is not the work of Muslims. It is much more like
the work of the Judeo-Christian Right, or so they would have it, by
applying the "fundamentalist" label to the horror before their eyes.
But what they don't look at is the fact that there are no such
abominations in the news as practiced by the fundamentalist Jewish and
Christian Right. Mostly all these killings and mutilations come into
the news from the culture of Islam. There is for this reason something
seriously wrong with the Liberal attempt to remove these unspeakable
cruelties from the picture of Islam that is painted by them. It is
there for all to see, and no sleight of hand characterization of
"fundamentalist" can crop or edit it out.
If there were indeed such a thing as "moderation" in Islam, even to
the least degree such that it had a power to affect the religion as a
whole, we would not be seeing these pictures . . .
No, we would not be hearing those reports. In order to find such
atrocities being practiced with any such-like currency in the Judeo-
Christian world you'd have to go back to the witch burnings of Salem
and the Spanish Inquisition. Thankfully, somehow, such a thing as
'moderation' did at long last come into being in the realm of
Christendom, and it would seem to have taken the better part of these
three hundred years since Salem to have shown itself for "moderation"
in the truest sense of the word; a moderation of the sort that is
effective to moderate, to loosen the strictures of the religion to the
extent that such outrages against humanity cease to be the production
of that religion.
As yet, there is no such moderation to be seen in Islam. As yet it is
firmly under thumb of the forces which demand such practices from the
faithful. The forces of moderation are not there to stop it, to take
the blight of it away from the face of the religion as a whole. It is
for this reason it must wear the veil. There is much to be hidden and
kept from sight.
And how did such moderation actually come into force with
Christendom? It came from without the religion. It came from the
Enlightenment of the 18th Century, whose torch bearers for Reason took
up the texts of the religion to read it critically and declare, This
is NOT the religion that its founder taught! And no words could have
been truer than those.
Unfortunately, for Islam the same can NEVER be said.
--
JM http://whosenose.blogspot.com
http://bobbisoxsnatchers.blogspot.com
== 2 of 4 ==
Date: Sat, Oct 24 2009 6:24 pm
From: "Francis A. Miniter"
Just Me wrote:
>
>
Your premise is false.
--
Francis A. Miniter
Oscuramente
libros, laminas, llaves
siguen mi suerte.
Jorge Luis Borges, La Cifra Haiku, 6
== 3 of 4 ==
Date: Sat, Oct 24 2009 8:15 pm
From: Just Me
On Oct 24, 8:24 pm, "Francis A. Miniter" <famini...@comcast.net>
wrote:
> Just Me wrote:
>
> Your premise is false.
>
> --
> Francis A. Miniter
>
> Oscuramente
> libros, laminas, llaves
> siguen mi suerte.
>
> Jorge Luis Borges, La Cifra Haiku, 6
Denial is not a river in Palo Alto.
--
JM http://doo-dads.blogspot.com
== 4 of 4 ==
Date: Sat, Oct 24 2009 10:31 pm
From: "Grand Mal"
"Just Me" <jpdm45@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:94776bf7-f973-47fc-8035-fe09735b467c@l33g2000vbi.googlegroups.com...
> Can it be so simple as this; that if they see a conservative or
> libertarian holding something in contempt (like communism) the left-
> knee jerk reaction is to
> conclude that since nothing on the right can be right, there must be
> something holy and left-like in what is being detested from the right?
No one detests liberals more than a rock-solid Islamic fundamentalist.
In fact, liberalism is the biggest enemy of orthodoxy and fundamentalism of
any stripe.
>
> Or beside just that, which must be a part of it, can it also be all
> balled up with left-wing multiculturalist ideology? Of course, because
> as multiculturalism is taught it is received by the propaganda
> susceptible left-leaning mind with all the honor due to Great Learning
> and Knowledge. And as one learns it, a strong conceit is taken to
> heart and mind over it, giving the student an elitist sense of being
> in the know concerning a code of esoteric thinkiing that is not given
> to the mass of the great unwashed, whose minds are presumed to be
> grimy with the filth of every manner of ill or uneducated prejudice.
>
> Little would such a student know that he has just traded one prejudice
> for another! And now as he looks out into the world to see people on
> the right holding all of Islam in none but the most complete contempt,
> he can only arrive at the conclusion that ethnocentrism and prejudice,
> not knowledge must stand as the basis for such condemnation.
>
> But this results in none but the most absurd of all paradoxes. It is
> not that the Leftist has studied the Qur'an and gone in whole hog for
> the doctrines, laws and teachings of Islam, not at all! For had they
> done any such study they'd be in for one hell of a bad case of
> doctrinal confusion over this for which they lend such passionate
> liberal support. Rather, they do not engage such study because for the
> most part that Leftist is an agnostic, if not a full bore atheist, who
> for his own use rejects all religion as a lot of primitive
> superstition unworthy of study, on top of which he or she is often
> like to be a complete sexual libertine who wants nothing to do with
> the morality being taught by any religion.
>
> So it is not what Islam IS that gains the sympathy of the Left, it is
> to the contrary what Islam is NOT: Islam is NOT loved by the non-
> Islamic Religious and Libertarian Right. Therefore it is to be pitied
> and hugged, like a tree or an endangered bug. And though this
> mistreatment from the Right would be enough for those on the Left to
> shower their sympathy upon the people of a religion they know nothing
> about, or least of all care for in its beliefs and moral tenets, there
> is somewhat more to it!
>
> The multiculturalist morality which demands of the Liberal that he or
> she should never stand in judgment of a culture not their own, CLEARLY
> does not extend to the culture that IS their own. The multculturalist
> left sees NO reason to extend a policy of nonjudgmentalism to
> Christianity and Judaism. That would be like incest and nepotism,
> viewed from the perspective of the multiculturalist agenda. Only
> cultures not their own get the blank check, the Get Out of Jail Free
> card. In other words, so long as it is not something or someone from
> their very own Occidental culture, it must stand above judgment and
> criticism. And how do they manage that in view of such atrocities as
> this . . .
>
> http://www.eruditiononline.com/01.04/zahida_story.htm
>
> They will look at the disfigurement of that girl's face and say, "This
> is the work of *fundamentalist* Islam, and it is not the practice of
> moderate Muslims anywhere." As the facts come before their faces to
> make a stinking mush of their multiculturalist soup what do they do?
> They deny that what they see has anything to do with Islam properly so-
> called. Hence, this is not the work of Muslims. It is much more like
> the work of the Judeo-Christian Right, or so they would have it, by
> applying the "fundamentalist" label to the horror before their eyes.
>
> But what they don't look at is the fact that there are no such
> abominations in the news as practiced by the fundamentalist Jewish and
> Christian Right. Mostly all these killings and mutilations come into
> the news from the culture of Islam. There is for this reason something
> seriously wrong with the Liberal attempt to remove these unspeakable
> cruelties from the picture of Islam that is painted by them. It is
> there for all to see, and no sleight of hand characterization of
> "fundamentalist" can crop or edit it out.
>
> If there were indeed such a thing as "moderation" in Islam, even to
> the least degree such that it had a power to affect the religion as a
> whole, we would not be seeing these pictures . . .
>
> http://tinyurl.com/yf3a5d9
>
> No, we would not be hearing those reports. In order to find such
> atrocities being practiced with any such-like currency in the Judeo-
> Christian world you'd have to go back to the witch burnings of Salem
> and the Spanish Inquisition. Thankfully, somehow, such a thing as
> 'moderation' did at long last come into being in the realm of
> Christendom, and it would seem to have taken the better part of these
> three hundred years since Salem to have shown itself for "moderation"
> in the truest sense of the word; a moderation of the sort that is
> effective to moderate, to loosen the strictures of the religion to the
> extent that such outrages against humanity cease to be the production
> of that religion.
>
> As yet, there is no such moderation to be seen in Islam. As yet it is
> firmly under thumb of the forces which demand such practices from the
> faithful. The forces of moderation are not there to stop it, to take
> the blight of it away from the face of the religion as a whole. It is
> for this reason it must wear the veil. There is much to be hidden and
> kept from sight.
>
> And how did such moderation actually come into force with
> Christendom? It came from without the religion. It came from the
> Enlightenment of the 18th Century, whose torch bearers for Reason took
> up the texts of the religion to read it critically and declare, This
> is NOT the religion that its founder taught! And no words could have
> been truer than those.
>
> Unfortunately, for Islam the same can NEVER be said.
> --
> JM http://whosenose.blogspot.com
> http://bobbisoxsnatchers.blogspot.com
==============================================================================
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "rec.arts.books"
group.
To post to this group, visit http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books?hl=en
To unsubscribe from this group, send email to rec.arts.books+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com
To change the way you get mail from this group, visit:
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/subscribe?hl=en
To report abuse, send email explaining the problem to abuse@googlegroups.com
==============================================================================
Google Groups: http://groups.google.com/?hl=en
Has laoreet percipitur ad. Vide interesset in mei, no his legimus verterem. Et nostrum imperdiet appellantur usu, mnesarchum referrentur id vim.
0 comments:
Post a Comment